Showing posts with label Federal. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Federal. Show all posts

Thursday, 20 December 2012

The US Military Pivot and the EU



‘About Face!’

In a recent article in the Guardian1 about the future of UKs maritime patrol and reconnaissance aircraft capability some interesting views were expressed by the UKs current Defence Secretary, Philip Hammond, with regards to the US ‘pivot’ of its military assets from Europe to the Asia Pacific region.

Philip Hammond criticised Europe’s collective defence capability and suggested that the intervention in Libya had “cruelly exposed” some limitations of some European countries, but what are these limitations? For some examples we need look no further than the current UK government’s cost cutting led SDSR (Strategic Defence and Security Review). That review axed the £4bn Nimrod replacement, the Harrier force (the UKs fixed wing carrier capable aircraft) and will lead to drastic cuts to troop numbers leaving the UK with many of the defence gaps he’s likely referring too.

Naturally his comments are directed at European allies in NATO, particularly Germany, and to be fair I do agree with this, but we should beware of hypocrisy. That said the UK and France together account for the vast majority of European defence spending. But if the UK government and Philip Hammond believe countries like Germany should begin contributing more then, in my view, the best way to achieve this is through the EU.

As I’ve mentioned elsewhere in this blog2 Germany and other EU members are supportive of a European military whereas the UK stands in opposition to this. Instead we need to take a more pragmatic approach and allow those countries who see the sense in pooling military resources to do so, whilst at the same time having our own reservations respected. I do not think this risks further division between Britain and the EU, but rather speeds up progress of the EU project. Another reason I doubt this would lead to divisions is because of France, their strong Gaulist tradition of independence is similar to opinion of many in the UK and they would likely want to maintain a similar level of independence as the UK.

Philip Hammond is right that Europe needs to pull its weight, especially now we cannot guarantee that the Americans will make up our capability gaps. However the most cost effective way to get the Germans et al to do this is through the EU.

1 The Guardian, 05/12/2012, ‘Unmanned drones likely to take over Nimrod spy duties’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/dec/05/unmanned-drone-nimrod-spy-plane Accessed 20/12/2012

2 Eurofile, 26/11/2012, ‘An argument for a European Union Security Force’, http://euro-file.blogspot.in/2012/11/an-argument-for-european-union-security.html

Wednesday, 19 December 2012

An Economic Case For Federal Union



'A Wealthy Future'

When looking at the total GDP of the European Union in 2011 it accounted for $17,610.826 billion1, making it the richest area in the world. The nearest runner up is the United States which accounted for $15,075.675 billion2 in 2011. Naturally the US, as one entity, is able to get a lot more for its dollar than the EUs 27 separate member states can and the duplication of efforts inherent to our current setup creates a lot of waste in various areas from healthcare to defence (see this earlier article for more detail http://euro-file.blogspot.in/2012/11/an-argument-for-european-union-security.html).


However when comparing the EU and the US GDP per capita the US rates much more highly than the EU with the US having $48,328 per person whereas the EU has $35,9733 suggesting a better income distribution in the US, however we need to take into consideration the population difference with the EU having nearly 200 million more citizens that the US.

Typically a more useful comparison is a GDP per capita that is PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) adjusted, this takes into account the cost of living, however this doesn’t change results much for the US but for the EU the total drops by around $3,0004. Again we can view this discrepancy through the prism of population differential. This difference is likely to remain the case for the foreseeable future as the EU continues to expand and include more and former Warsaw Pact countries with large populations and, compared to the US and Western Europe, weak economies.

Of course because of the variety within Europe many EU countries approximate or score much more highly than the US when looked at individually. But as a federalist clearly this is an undesirable state of affairs. But what we can glean from these figures is that there great potential within the EU, as the richest ‘state’ in the world and with a proud tradition of social provision across much of the continent a federal Europe could turn this great wealth towards improving the situation of less developed nations thus improving the overall situation within the EU.

Accessed 19/12/2012

2International Monetary Fund. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2012/02/weodata/weorept.aspx Accessed 19/12/2012


Friday, 30 November 2012

Keeping Britain In the EU

Monday, 26 November 2012

An argument for a European Union Security Force

'Getting more bang for our euro'



There would be many benefits to what has been referred to widely as a European Army (usually by detractors) or European Defence Force. I’ve chosen to refer to this theoretical organisation as a European Union Security Force (EUSF) rather than a Defence Force because in much of the literature one assumed role of any such organisation is UN mandated peacekeeping operations outside EU borders, similar to the one undertaken by EUFOR Althea in Bosnia.

It has been argued, particularly by Eurosceptics, that an organisation like the EUSF would undermine both NATO and the Trans-Atlantic alliance. The reality is far less clear cut. The Center on the United States and Europe suggest that in fact the status quo of uncoordinated defence cuts is damaging the EUs, and therefore NATOs, capabilities far more than a centralised EUSF would.1

As for the Trans-Atlantic alliance it is widely known that the US draw down in Europe and the Middle East2 are being followed by subsequent redeployments to the Pacific. In 2010 the US accounted for 75% of NATO defence spending, however in this time of austerity the Pentagon is naturally having to make cuts ($489bn over ten years3) in addition to Europe’s, so it’s inevitable that America will expect Europe to begin pulling its weight. If the EU is serious about the importance of its Trans-Atlantic alliance then it should demonstrate its commitment, either through increased spending or, more reasonably in the current economic climate, to find a way of maximising the efficiency of its defence expenditure.

One of the main problems levelled at EU military capabilities, when viewed as a whole, is that it is much less than the sum of its parts. This is largely due to the duplication of efforts which is itself a result of nationally prioritised defence spending. This national prioritisation of spending, and more recently cuts, has not been conducive to the kind regional coordination required to reduce duplication.


A benefit of a centrally organised EUSF is that it would help to reduce inefficiency. Despite the EUs vast defence spending, the second largest in the world, much of this spending is wasted on duplication. If this duplication was eliminated then money could be directed towards boosting effective deployment capabilities. Currently the EU gets a lot less ‘bang for its euro’ than the US, spending roughly 40% of what the US does on defence whilst only being able to sustain 25% the number of troops on external operations that the US can.3

Another criticism of any potential EUSF that is often cited is the potential loss of EU member states rapid reaction capabilities. At best the current institutions in place represent a commitment to shared values, multilateralism, recognition of mutual interests and common security threats but little else. As it stands, in the case of EUFOR, unanimous agreement is required within the EU before a deployment can take place. Reaching such agreements, which are ultimately political in nature, takes time. The divergent priorities of member states could potentially inhibit or even prevent rapid reactions to security situations, this is of course highly undesirable to say the least. This means a different decision reaching strategy would need to be implemented, one where majority rather than unanimous decisions are made. This would also require an end to national vetoes. This may sound like an unlikely and radical proposal however it is one that has already been made by Germany with the support of other EU nations4. If this move were successful then a EUSF would be far more capable of responding quickly to security situations. On a further note I feel it would necessary, if any such treaty were to be passed, for member states, particularly Britain and France, to be given assurances when it comes to the protection of overseas dependencies such as the Falklands Islands and French Guiana that full military action would be taken to defend them if necessary.

A centralised European military like a EUSF would face many hurdles before it could ever become a reality but the evolution of the Common Foreign and Security Policy5 and the European Defence Agency6, which is designed to facilitate EU wide defence cooperation, procurement and research, has been a good start. If the EUSF comes into existence it would give us an opportunity to drive up the overall quality of EU armed forces, particularly form poorer member states, whilst at the same time driving down procurement costs and improving expenditure efficiency.

In the 21st Century power projection is going to increasingly be the name of the game. The nature and focus of conflicts is likely to shift in the face of an ever growing global population towards smaller scale engagements in areas of resource scarcity. The multiplicity of potential flash points across the globe will require a well-funded, highly motivated and adaptable force to counter them. The volatile nature of much of the EUs neighbours from North Africa and the Middle East to the Balkans and the Caucasus means there is going to be, for the foreseeable future, a necessity for Europe to defend itself and its allies. The question the EU has to ask itself is, do we want to get more ‘bang for our euro?’.




1 C. Mölling, July 2012. ‘The Implications of Military Spending Cuts for NATO’s Largest Members’, Center on the United States and Europe. Brookings.

2 P. Allen, S. Jeffery, January 2012. ‘US defence review: the shape of the US military overseas’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/interactive/2012/jan/06/us-military-deployment-map?INTCMP=SRCH. The Guardian.

3 D.Keohane, May 2012. Does NATO matter for US defence policy?’, FRIDE.

4 I. Traynor, September 2012. ‘EU heavyweights call for radical foreign and defence policy overhaul’, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/18/eu-foreign-defence-policy-overhaul. The Guardian.

5 Wikipedia, November 2012. ‘Common Foreign and Security Policy’, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Foreign_and_Security_Policy#1957.E2.80.931993.

6 European Defence Agency, November 2012. ‘About us’, http://www.eda.europa.eu/home.